Negotiating energy futures - The politics of energy forecasting === > [!tldr] Tags > #Energy forecasting #Energy models #Western world #type/journalArticle > [!info] Meta Data >**FirstAuthor**:: [[Midttun, Atle]] **Author**:: [[Baumgartner, Thomas]] > **Title**:: Negotiating energy futures - The politics of energy forecasting > **Year**:: 1986 > **Citekey**:: [[1986_midttun.baumgartner]] > **itemType**:: journalArticle > **Journal**:: *Energy Policy* > **Volume**:: 14 > **Issue**:: 3 > **Pages**:: 219-241 > **DOI**:: 10.1016/0301-4215(86)90145-X > **ISSN**:: 0301-4215 > > [!Cite] > Midttun Atle et Baumgartner Thomas, « Negotiating energy futures - The politics of energy forecasting », _Energy Policy_, 1 juin 1986, vol. 14, no 3, p. 219‑241. > > %%[@1986_midttun.baumgartner]%% > **URL**:: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/030142158690145X . > > **Related**:: . > > **Attachment**::[PDF](zotero://open-pdf/library/items/9GJ9XJ6D). --- > [!important] Synthesis > **Contribution**:: > > [!Abstract] > > Over the last decade it has become increasingly clear that energy forecasts have been used for partisan purposes. Through energy models and forecasts, industrial, political and administrative interests compete for cognitive and methodological hegemony. We have termed this integration of modelling and politics the ‘scientific negotiation of energy futures’. This article presents core elements of a sociopolitical and institutional perspective with which to analyse the generation of assumptions that underlie energy models and forecasts. We focus on the factors that shape the choice of data, functional forms and modelling methodologies. We point to the filters of professional orientation and organizational structures that give every forecast an inherent cognitive bias. We stress the legitimation function of forecasts in political decision making. These factors are illustrated with a comparative analysis of energy modelling and forecasting over the last 20 years in the UK, Canada, Denmark, France, the Netherlands, Norway, the USA, and FR Germany, and a discussion of the IIASA world energy model. >> --- # Note. --- # Annotations%% begin annotations %% %% end annotations %% %% Import Date: 2026-09-24T11:00:34.094+02:00 %%